The first thing to remember is free and fair elections are never won or lost before the vote is tallied.
The mainstream media has practically called this election for Barack Obama, but I think they are completely wrong. In fact, I not only believe McCain will win, I also believe the margin will be at least as wide as 2004 when Bush beat Kerry and here are the reasons why:
- Sarah Palin. The media keeps trying to tell us she is hated because she is outspoken and right-wing, but this just is not supported by the facts. This year's Vice Presidential debate was the highest rated...ever. It wasn't because Washington main-stay Joe Biden was there. Republicans, especially conservatives, love her and she not only brings the conservative base back, she energizes them. The latest Saturday Night Live skit with her was the highest rated SNL in 14 years. Even more evidence of how much the people like her. She will bring a lot of voters to the polls who had planned to sit out this election because they were not happy about the moderate McCain.
- The polls have been skewed by the media for a reason. The media are not trying at all to hide their bias this election so the polls they take are focused on deflating Republicans to try and get them to stay home. That is why they are all saying "it's over, Obama will win in a landslide", but history does not support them. The polls always tighten up and even flip in the last day or two before an election because the pollsters cannot afford to be way off when the actual vote comes in. Another problem with the early polls can be seen in the internals. If you look at the polling samples, they have contained at least 60% "registered democrats" plus the poll is "weighted" with the media saying they believe more democrats will show up at the polls. This gives a false lead to Obama. Polls have already begun to tighten and in most of the polls conducted by polling institutions on their own (by this I mean polls that are not dictated by a particular media outlet) are showing a neck-and-neck race.
- People lie to pollsters. There are a lot of people out there who are sick of the mainstream media trying to make up news with polls and others who believe it is none of their business so they lie about their intentions. That's why several polls have such a large margin of error of 7%-10%.
- The reports of millions of unprecedented young voters is just not true. A recent survey of new voter registrations showed new youth registrants this year is at the same level as previous elections. That does not translate into the reported expectation of millions of votes for Obama.
- In internal polls (polls done by the campaigns themselves), Obama is only getting 80% of registered democrat support. Compare that to Kerry who had 89% and Gore who had 93% but still lost. This comes from the leaders of the party believing all democrats are very left-wing like them. The truth is about 1/2 of registered democrats are moderate to conservative. Every new democrat who was elected in 2006 ran more conservative than their republican opposition. The people who elected them will not vote for someone as liberal as Obama/Biden.
- The missteps of the candidates these last two weeks are hurting Obama/Biden tremendously. People are watching the candidates and their party try to destroy "Joe the plumber's" life. Average Americans relate to Joe much more than they relate with Obama or Biden. It enrages the average American to see elites try to destroy someone who simply asks a question and that makes them think "What if that were me and my family?"
- Today another interview has Obama saying the Constitution is flawed and he shares his belief that the courts have not been radical enough in redistributing wealth. This will spread across the Internet and since it is in his own words he cannot deny it. People will see this as his real beliefs and they do not support these concepts. The large majority of Americans love and are proud of their country and they do not think it is fundamentally flawed. Also, in a previous survey, 84% of people polled said they do not support the redistribution of wealth by the government taking from one to give it to someone else. Only 9% said they support this concept so when people see Obama's real beliefs they will turn away from him.
- With the media 100% in the tank for Obama, completely covering up everything about his beliefs and his past while digging up and making up things about McCain and Palin, Obama should be walking away with this election with 20% margins. The Obama campaign knows this and their internal polls show they are way too close. This is why Obama has gone back to the 30 year old democrat play book claiming McCain is going to cut medicare and social security. This same old lie worked for the first couple of times it was tried, but after 30 years people see the truth and they know neither has ever been cut and it's just the same old class warfare tactics. It is a last ditch effort because he knows he is in trouble. Also, Obama is still campaigning hard and in person in states like Virginia where the media say he has a 10%-15% lead. If that were true, Obama would be focusing on the swing states and not wasting his time in places he has "in the bag".
- The biggest reason Obama will not win this election is "the Bradley effect". Liberals try to use this to say we are all racists, but it's the opposite. For years they have tried to shut down debate with political correctness. This includes calling anyone who does not vote for a black candidate a racist. The issues do not matter to the name callers, they just call everyone racists to try and shame them into voting for the black candidate even though the candidate's views may be completely opposite from the voter's. Because of this attempt to shut down debate, when people are called by a pollster about a race that has a black candidate against a white candidate many will say they plan to vote for the black candidate even if they really are not planning that at all. The voter knows the pollster called them so there is no anonymity. The voter does not want to be called a racist just because they don't plan to vote for the black candidate so they just lie to the pollster. This is usually a 10%-15% difference which is a huge amount to overcome. Basically, if Obama isn't up by a very minimum of 9 points in the polls one or two days before the election, he will not be able to overcome the "Bradley effect".
These are the top reasons I think John McCain will win this election regardless of what the media says. Their efforts to suppress republican voters will fail as it has the last several elections and they will be "surprised" Tuesday night when McCain is declared the winner.
Posts
